With snowflakes continuing to fall from the sky on Friday and more snow in the forecast for Monday, we know what everyone in New Jersey is wondering: Is this our last blast of snow this winter?
If you are a snow hater — or a snow lover who is sick of all the frozen stuff we’ve gotten this month — there are some good signs up in the atmosphere that our wintry weather pattern will soon be slowing down, according to local weather experts.
A lot of this has to do with the polar vortex on the verge of getting stronger once again, says Steven DiMartino, a meteorologist who heads the NY NJ PA Weather forecasting company, based in Monmouth County.
The polar vortex — a giant stream of frigid air that normally circulates tightly up in the stratosphere around the North Pole — was weakened in January by rapidly warming temperatures, a process known as sudden stratospheric warming.
When the polar vortex is weak, it often splits up into pieces, sending pockets of frigid air drifting down into Canada and into the United States. That’s what happened during recent weeks, and it played a huge role in the deadly, record-breaking cold snap that has wreaked havoc on Texas.
When the polar vortex is strong, the colder air remains locked in place near the Arctic Circle, and it helps change the winter weather pattern here in the U.S., DiMartino noted.
The polar vortex is a band of frigid air that circulates tightly around the North Pole. It occasionally weakens, allowing Arctic air to drift down into other regions of the world, including the United States.AccuWeather
“The same process that caused this pattern, the stratospheric warming, is going to get us to an early spring in the form of stratospheric cooling,” he said.
“The stratosphere is very cold now, and that allows the polar vortex to consolidate and strengthen,” DiMartino added. “This process causes the polar jet stream to retreat and disrupts high latitude blocking. You can still get blocking, but it isn’t as effective.”
During most of February, the polar vortex weakening caused the polar jet stream to dip far down into the southern U.S. — creating a wavy path that allowed many winter storms to track from the northwestern region, down to the Deep South, then up the Atlantic coast.
As part of that process, a strong dome of high pressure in central and eastern Canada pushed cold air into the central and eastern U.S. and helped block or slow storm systems down. That atmospheric setup is one of the main reasons why New Jersey got blasted by huge amounts of snow in early February.
Now, with the polar vortex in the process of returning to normal, and the blocking pattern easing up, DiMartino believes this lessens the chances of the New Jersey region getting hit with major, widespread snowstorms during the next few weeks.
“I expect a process of the gradual retreat of winter weather,” he said. “While I can’t say 100% no more winter storms, I can say the ability to have winter storms is severely reduced after this storm, almost to zero in southern New Jersey.”
This was the general winter weather pattern that developed in the United States in late January and early February, when cold air from the disrupted polar vortex dropped down into the United States and the polar jet stream dipped south.AccuWeather
DiMartino said he expects to see a few more storms that bring some snow mainly to the state’s northwestern counties and changing to rain as temperatures rise above freezing. The central region, particularly along the Interstate 95 corridor, is more likley to see mixes of snow, sleet and rain rather than big all-snow events in the next few weeks.
And South Jersey is likely to get plain rain and hardly any snow, DiMartino said.
That outlook is similar to what many forecasters are expecting on Monday, when a fast-moving storm system from the Great Lakes region will be drifting across the New Jersey region and bringing light snow changing to rain.
Spring on the way?
As February starts to wind down and March arrives, DiMartino believes we still might get some brief cold snaps, but more streaks of warmer temperatures — cutting down on our snow chances.
By the middle of March, he expects New Jersey to fully shift into spring-like weather.
Bobby Martrich, a meteorologist for EPAWA Weather Consulting, agrees our region will soon be shifting to warmer temperatures as the polar vortex retreats to its normal position way up north.
That should reduce the chances of major snowstorms in northwestern New Jersey and in the Lehigh Valley in northeastern Pennsylvania in the coming weeks, Martrich told our affiliate, Lehighvalleylive.com.
“This brutal pattern we’re having this month is going to turn the corner once we get into March,” Martrich said.
He noted, however, it’s too soon to completely dismiss the possibility of significant snow before spring arrives. All it takes is a wet weather pattern, and cold air setting up at the right time.
But for now, computer guidance models are pointing to warming temperatures by the middle of next week — with highs in New Jersey creeping into the upper 40s in the northern region and making a run for the low 50s in the southern region — and a slightly warmer than normal March.
Snow haters are probably keeping their fingers crossed.
Current weather radar
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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com.
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