Protesters in Minsk, Belarus, Aug. 16.
Photo: yauhen yerchak/ShutterstockOn the streets of Minsk, the capital of Belarus, there have been weeks of protests against Alexander Lukashenko, sometimes called the “last dictator in Europe.” Sparked by his obvious attempt to falsify an election and undercut any opposition to his 26-year rule, the protests have expanded to sporadic strikes and unprecedented calls for Mr. Lukashenko’s removal. While Belarus today appears to be undergoing an awakening similar to Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan protests, it is highly uncertain if this outpouring of discontent can oust the dictator from his post. This can only happen if the West recognizes the situation’s differences from the Ukrainian upheaval and applies pressure accordingly.
Mr. Lukashenko’s rule since 1994 has rested on a perverse social contract in which stability and social benefits are provided in exchange for no political opposition. Cracks appeared in the facade in 2004, after a change of the constitution to allow Mr. Lukashenko to stand for the presidency a third time; in 2006, when a rigged election prompted a “jeans revolution”; and especially in 2010, when tens of thousands marched against a similar election widely seen as not free, not fair and tightly controlled. These protests resulted in state violence against the opposition, protesters and even foreign media, and Mr. Lukashenko remained in power.
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The latest wave of protests is the strongest to date. The movement has support across many parts of the electorate, is tightly focused on self-determination, and appears finally to be wearing out Mr. Lukashenko. On Aug. 15 an estimated 200,000 Belarusians protested in Minsk and more took to the streets across the country. Despite police brutality and detention of protesters, the opposition appears undaunted. A bewildered Mr. Lukashenko was heckled with shouts of “Leave!” during a speech at the MZKT military-vehicle factory—a place that should have been filled with his supporters—and he appeared to be heading for the same post-power retirement in Russia as former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.
But the differences with Ukraine’s Maidan must be stressed. First, the protests are not pro-European Union, nor are they explicitly anti-Russian. Belarusians see themselves more as a Russia-aligned Switzerland than a country trapped behind an iron curtain. The protests are narrowly focused on a free and fair election, one that sees Mr. Lukashenko off into the sunset. The opposition, led by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, has disavowed any talk of European integration. Unlike Ukraine, which had to be pressured to join Vladimir Putin’s pet project, the Eurasian Economic Union, Belarus was an enthusiastic founding member. In many ways, it has done well in the trade bloc. And while Belarus maintains good economic relations with the EU, which is the country’s second-largest trading partner, joining it holds no allure for the Belarusian on the street.
Second, and perhaps most important, Maidan was a phenomenon of Kyiv, tepidly received in Ukraine’s east, which voted for Mr. Yanukovych. In Belarus, by contrast, Minsk remains the citadel of Mr. Lukashenko’s power, and despite hosting the largest demonstration in Belarus’s history, it remains the toughest nut to crack.
The dispersed nature of protest across Belarus may pose a significant threat to Mr. Lukashenko. For example, in the western town of Grodno, local authorities have pledged not to prosecute protesters and have apologized for previous actions, for which the governor of the region has been sacked. Twitter and other social-media sites are full of videos of local police and militiamen who refuse to take up arms against their countrymen.
The most ominous parallel with the Ukrainian experience is the possible involvement of Russia. Mr. Putin is determined not to lose influence in another state on Russia’s border and has pledged security support. Mr. Lukashenko has confirmed that striking Belarusian state-TV employees have been replaced by Russians, and there are pervasive worries about the appearance of “polite little green men”—Russian army operatives without insignias—appearing in Belarus as they did in Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014.
For the moment it appears unlikely that Russia will intervene directly. Mr. Putin famously has no love for Mr. Lukashenko and, as of yet, there is no official Kremlin line on the protests. So far Russian state TV has been covering the unrest in nightly broadcasts. In the longer term, Russia might be better served by a pluralistic Belarus that still sees its large neighbor as an ally.
This means that the West can play a role in Belarus, but it must not raise alarms in the Kremlin that Maidan 2.0 is under way. Like the protesters, the West must remain disciplined and on message, conveying unequivocal support for the goal of free and fair elections. At the same time, human-rights violations such as murders and abductions of protesters and strike leaders should be dealt with severely, but in the context of protecting the democratic process: the West can be most helpful by focusing narrowly on the current round of beatings, torture and disappearances.
Belarus has many problems, but addressing the one at hand, namely Mr. Lukashenko, is necessary before any of the others can be considered. By not pushing for a Europeanization that Belarus isn’t ready for and doesn’t want—despite the gains that it would bring to the country—the West may be able to consolidate democracy in Belarus and spare it the horrors not of Ukraine in 2014, but of Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968.
Mr. Hartwell is a professor at Britain’s Bournemouth University and Poland’s Kozminski University and a fellow of the Polish think tank CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
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