Three consecutive years largely without monsoons, record-low soil moistures in the fall and below average winter snowpack have set the stage for the giant smoke plumes rising over Colorado.
"It’s sad, sad when anything burns," said Bob Nock, owner of Eagle River Anglers, who was watching the Sylvan fire blaze through thousands of acres about 16 miles south of Eagle in thick, partially beetle-killed forest. While he sees the potential for the streams to be filled with silt and hurt the fish because of the fire, he sees the fire as a part of the natural cycle.
The Sylvan fire was one of seven large fires in the state this year that collectively have burned 26,114 acres as of Friday. The fires put the state way ahead of where it was last year at this time. The Rocky Mountain Area Coordination Center, which helps to coordinate firefighting across five states, last week upgraded its preparedness level to 3, which did not happen until Aug. 7 last year. The level reflects the number of fires and crews needed to fight them, said Larry Helmerick, a spokesman for the agency.
"We are definitely in fire season a lot earlier than we were last year," he said.
Rain helped slow the fires, but they are expected to heat up again as conditions dry out.
As a potentially dry summer sets in, the state has been split by vastly different fire-danger conditions. Two back-to-back drought years have set the Western Slope up for an early and intense fire season while eastern Colorado made an unexpected recovery with a cold and wet May that has given rise to green slopes. The new, tall grasses could pose their own danger if hot temperatures dry them out in the coming months, experts say.
However, the conditions on the Western Slope and many part of the west are already reaching record drought levels. It's possible the coming wildfire season could be worse than last year in the extreme conditions, said Jeff Colton, a warning coordination and incident meteorologist for the National Weather Service.
"The tundra up top is even crunchy," he said.
The deepest red portions of the state are in exceptional drought, the highest level of drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor scale. This map was released Thursday.
When the monsoon largely failed for the third year in a row on the Western Slope in 2020, the soils hit record low moisture levels and that dry soil soaked up the below average snowfall, hurting runoff, he said. Then in early June, high temperatures hit in force with even Aspen hitting 90 degrees, he said. Humidity has also been extremely low, a contributor to fire risk.
"A lot of dead and down trees have some of the lowest fuel moisture content we have ever seen," he said.
In eastern Utah the vegetation is starting to disappear, similar to conditions seen in 2012 when the region saw blowing dust.
The Front Range and eastern Colorado, came out of drought entirely largely in the spring when storms came down from the north and largely missed the western part of the state, said Peter Goble, a climatologist with the Colorado Climate Center.
However, good conditions early in the season don't always last. The state's two largest fires in history, the Cameron Peak and East Troublesome fires which burned last year, caught fire after some of the best snowpack the year prior, he said. Both fires burned late in the season which is also unusual.
Monsoons in July and August have helped to reduce fire risk in the past, but now they are less consistent.
"We are definitely worried about what’s going on," Goble said.
Widespread fire danger
While wildfire evacuations have been limited so far this month, the risk to homeowners is widespread because half of Colorado's residents live across the 3.2 million acres of the state where open space is adjacent to or intermingles with homes, also known as the wildland-urban interface, according to the state forest serve. Cedar Heights, Upper Skyway and Broadmoor Hill are a few of the neighborhoods that qualify in Colorado Springs.
By 2050, the area designated as wildland-urban interface is projected to grow to 9 million acres, the state forest service estimates.
The state legislature set aside one-time funding of $68 million earlier this year to help mitigate fire risk across the state and help areas burnt in last years large fire recover, said Sara Leonard, on behalf of the Division of Natural Resources. The Forest Restoration and Wildfire Risk Mitigation Grant Program to help neighborhood associations, governments and other groups with mitigation projects, such as thinning trees, also saw its annual budget grow from about $1 million to about $8 million.
This spring, the grant program received 85 applications for $13.6 million in assistance, according to a statement from the agency.
In Colorado Springs, where the fire department helps run brush through wood chippers at neighborhood events, resident-led mitigation projects reached a peak last year compared to previous decades, Fire Marshal Brett Lacey said.
"We had our biggest chipping year in tonnage and participation that we have ever had since 2000," he said.
His office was nearly overwhelmed last year with on-site assessments that help determine what vegetation needs to be removed and this year the interest is staying high, he said. The fire department works with about 140 homeowners associations, he said.
Mitigation work paid off most recently during the Bear Creek fire when 26 acres burned in November and came up to edge of yards in western Colorado Springs. But no homes, which officials credit in part to work to thin trees, shrubs and other vegetation across 76 acres in Bear Creek Park.
An unhealthy landscape
Thinning trees, removing brush and other fire mitigation strategies can help improve the long-term health of Colorado's forests.
As beetles have swept through Colorado forests killing millions of acres of trees and severe wildfires have followed, Colorado's forests may no longer be absorbing more carbon than they put out, said Amanda West Fordham, associate director of science and data with the state forest service. Carbon, also produced by cars, coal burning power plants and other manmade sources, contributes to climate change.
However, it is difficult to judge whether forests are emitting more carbon than they store because much of the carbon in a forest is stored in the ground, she said.
"A lot of researchers are trying to address how do we quantify these tradeoffs between what's emitted from wildfires versus what’s being sequestered," West Fordham said.
Encouraging regeneration of forests after they burn through planting seedlings if entire stands of streets have been wiped out could be one of the ways the state encourages carbon sequestration and a return to good forest health, she said.
Not all fires are damaging, for example, a low intensity fire in pinyon juniper forest that leaves older trees in place can encourage new generations of seedlings and bolster forest health, she said.
Living with damaged forest
Sarah Metcalf-Burgard describes the level of beetle-killed forest near her home in Eagle County as extreme and she's been somewhat prepared for a blaze like the Sylvan fire, as part of a network of other horse-owners in the county who stay ready to help each other evacuate. Her ranch May Day Acres breeds horses.
While the network wasn't needed this week, she was still helping folks under pre-evacuation notices move livestock away from the fire, she said.
"It’s definitely nerve wracking," she said.
She lives along Brush Creek and finds some comfort that the wetland might protect her property. But she is still worried if the watershed burns it will pollute the clear water of the trout-laden creek with runoff and fire suppressant.
Her family also worries fire could consume their century-old cabin on Forest Service land. The family cut back brush and watered down the surrounding landscape to protect it, Metcalf-Burgard said.
But she expressed optimism about weekend rain slowing down the fire and aiding crews working to contain it.
"It is looking hopeful right now," she said.
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