More than a year into the pandemic, New Jersey is now swept up in a third wave of the coronavirus, with cases and hospitalizations on the rise despite the continued rollout of vaccines.
But how long will this latest surge last? And how bad could it get? That, experts and officials say, depends on a few factors — including you.
Gov. Phil Murphy’s administration unveiled prediction models Wednesday as New Jersey carries the nation’s second-highest rate of new coronavirus cases in the last seven days — an average that’s up 21% from a week ago and 42% from a month ago. Hospitalizations are also up by more than 25% over the last two weeks, officials say.
The state’s models show that under a moderate scenario, numbers would rise the next few weeks before peaking on April 18, with 5,445 cases and 2,669 people hospitalized — about 300 more than the state’s current patient total. Hospitalizations would not fall below 1,000 until August.
Under a high scenario, the wave would not peak until May 18, with 8,162 cases and 3,644 people hospitalized — a patient level similar to the height of the second wave this past December. Hospitalizations would not drop below 3,000 until July.
“Under this scenario, we’re in for a long, hot summer,” Murphy said, though the governor noted “my gut tells me we’re in for the moderate reality.”
New Jersey came nowhere near matching prediction models during the first two waves, and officials do not expect hospitalizations to reach what they did last spring, when there were more than 8,300 patients at the peak.
But they do expect daily deaths to increase, and the state could experience a “very slow recovery” over the summer, state Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli said Wednesday.
Stephanie Silvera, an epidemiologist and public health professor at Montclair State University, said she’s hopeful about the state seeing the moderate scenario playing out — with the wave peaking in a little less than three weeks.
But that, she said, depends on if people keep wearing masks and practicing social distancing as vaccinations increase, while avoiding gatherings among those who are not vaccinated.
Experts and officials agree the new surge is being driven by more contagious variants spreading and people being lax with restrictions. With older residents more likely to be vaccinated, New Jersey has recently seen a 31% increase in people ages 20 to 29 being hospitalized and a 48% increase in those 40 to 49.
“This is a race of vaccines versus variants,” Silvera said. “We are all very tired of this pandemic, but the pandemic isn’t done with us yet. ... It is not the time to pretend this is over.”
Indeed, state officials stressed Wednesday the models are only predictions, and human behavior can help alter the trajectory.
Dr. Perry Halkitis, dean of the Rutgers School of Public Health, predicts numbers to increase after Passover and Easter Sunday, though he doesn’t expect it to “be at the disastrous levels of previous upticks.”
The fact that about 25% of adults in the state have already been vaccinated helps, Halkitis said. (The state’s goal is to reach 70% by the summer. State officials stress that vaccine supply from the federal government is set to increase in the coming weeks.)
But Halkitis said he’s worried too many people are already viewing vaccinations as “a panacea” when in reality the vaccine’s effectiveness truly kicks in only “when we get to herd immunity.”
“Unfortunately, people are going to get sick and die because people are not heeding advice,” he said.
The new case spikes are also distracting from the vaccination process itself, Halkitis said.
“Imagine you have a dam with holes in it,” he said. “You’re sealing up the holes, but another open opens up because the water is rushing from the other side. We need people to join forces and wear masks.”
Silvera, the Montclair State professor, also said Murphy shouldn’t “reopen anything that he hasn’t reopened.”
Despite the current surge, New Jersey increased its outdoor gathering limit to 200 people on Friday. In addition, venues that can seat 2,500 people are now permitted to increase indoor seating capacity to 20%, up from 10%, and outdoor capacity to 30%, up from 15%. Murphy argued this week that the state has been methodical and slower than other states in its reopening steps and that outdoor activity is less dangerous than indoor activity.
CORONAVIRUS RESOURCES: Live map tracker | Newsletter | Homepage
Halkitis said it would also be helpful if vaccinations expand to children. Pfizer announced this week its vaccine is 100% effective in kids 12 to 15.
The Rutgers dean said he even would have preferred the state to vaccinate younger people first. As of Monday, 55 and older, numerous essential workers, and people with certain medical conditions are eligible for the vaccine, though Murphy expects all adult residents to be eligible by May 1.
“In a best-case scenario,” Halkitis said, “if we rev up vaccinations and get to 12-year-olds over the course of the next couple of months, I do believe we could get this thing to a much more manageable place by July.”
He’a also optimistic the state will have “some sense of normalcy in the fall,” with children back in school.
Silvera agreed — though she said she expects mask mandates to still be in place come the fall.
As for the summer? Silvera said warmer weather arriving will help.
“Will it be 2019 normal? Not quite yet,” the Montclair State professor said. “But are we getting there? Yes.”
Our journalism needs your support. Please subscribe today to NJ.com
Brent Johnson may be reached at bjohnson@njadvancemedia.com.
"last" - Google News
April 03, 2021 at 09:05PM
https://ift.tt/3mgzXEx
How long will the COVID third wave last in N.J.? Here’s what experts have to say. - NJ.com
"last" - Google News
https://ift.tt/2rbmsh7
https://ift.tt/2Wq6qvt
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "How long will the COVID third wave last in N.J.? Here’s what experts have to say. - NJ.com"
Post a Comment