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Jeremy Fowler
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ESPN Staff Writer- ESPN staff writer
- Previously a college football reporter for CBSSports.com
- University of Florida graduate
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Dan Graziano
The question that the sports-specific reporter hears the most is probably, "What do you do in the offseason?" The answer, in part at least, is that we spend a lot of time on the phone.
If you really follow the NFL, you know there really isn't an "offseason." The non-regular-season calendar is littered with event after event that demands coverage, and this time of year, that event is the NFL draft. For the past couple of months, the vast majority of our calls and texts have been draft-focused, trying our best to figure out what various teams will do and how the whole thing will unfold.
As a result, we've got notes. Lots and lots of draft notes, a day before it begins (8 p.m. ET Thursday on ESPN, ABC and the ESPN app).
And because we like to share, and because we know you, like us, cannot wait for Round 1 to get here, we wanted to share a big ol' pile of those notes with you. Without further ado, here's a representative sample of what we've been hearing, starting with the 49ers' decision near the top of the draft:
Jump to a section:
A surprise team into the top 10?
This team wants out of the top 10
What is the Patriots' plan?
Which wide receiver will go first?
RB could go higher than you think
Inside the Rams' draft mansion
Ten more nuggets: What teams are thinking
Who will it be at No. 3?
The 49ers wrapped up draft meetings late last week, so all the heavy lifting on the quarterbacks in contention for the No. 3 overall pick has been completed. The final stage was the coaching staff breaking down all the top options for that pick; the pros and cons of Alabama's Mac Jones, North Dakota State's Trey Lance and Ohio State's Justin Fields in a neutral process. Now, it's just a matter of deciding who it will be.
Sources believe that when the Niners traded up from No. 12 to No. 3 a month ago, they did so with Jones in mind. And sources also say that 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan -- who ultimately gets to make the final decision here -- has preferred Jones to the other two options since the process began.
But there have been discussions in the building about whether Lance or Fields might be the better pick, and Shanahan has kept an open mind and listened to others in the organization make their cases. This could go all the way to Thursday without a true reveal.
If you were to poll dozens of league officials (which we've basically done), you'd get a wide range of opinions on who wins out here -- with Jones taking the lead, and Lance in second. Fields appears to have finished third in this competition, as the discussion over the weekend and early this week was about Jones vs. Lance.
"Kyle Shanahan gives the 49ers the edge, and Mac is the warrior to situate that edge," said one high-ranking NFC exec.
Added an NFC coach with ties to Shanahan: "Mac is basically all the QBs Kyle has coached rolled into one -- Kirk Cousins, Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan. He can run the play-action and know where to go with the ball in a flash. He needs someone to rip it without hesitation, and let Kyle's scheme open the rest."
The 49ers, however, have entered the process with an open mind, and Fields and Lance have made compelling cases. We're told the 49ers were pleased with how Fields handled himself throughout as he explained his decision-making and preparation. They felt, as did many other teams, that Lance came across incredibly well in virtual meetings and has a ton of intangibles. That might not be enough.
At Lance's second pro day last week, Shanahan and general manager John Lynch met with North Dakota State coaches to figure out how Lance would handle the intricacies of Shanahan's offense, including lengthy verbiage. Coaches explained how Lance's ability to verbalize lengthy calls, get the offense organized and set protections is a strength for the quarterback. NDSU coaches spent significant time with San Francisco and Atlanta in the process, so there would be at least mild surprise in Fargo if both pass on him.
Keep this in mind: The 49ers don't smokescreen well when it comes to the first round of the draft. Their first pick has been well-known ahead of the draft in every year since Shanahan became coach and John Lynch became GM. We knew Solomon Thomas was their guy in 2017. It took until the final few days to clarify, but by draft day in 2018 we knew they liked Mike McGlinchey. They never wavered from Nick Bosa in 2019. And last year, after they traded defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to the Colts for a first-round pick in March, it was expected that they planned to draft Javon Kinlaw to replace him.
What are we getting at here? Listen to the reports from the reporters you trust; what you hear about the 49ers, you can believe.
Could Washington make a huge move up the board?
The Washington Football Team, which owns the No. 19 pick, has done legwork on a potential trade up, making phone calls to teams in or around the top 10. We've talked to a few personnel evaluators who think Washington's target is not a quarterback. Most sizable jumps are for a passer, though, and it requires parting with serious draft capital to make it happen.
Three years ago, Buffalo gave up first- and fifth-rounders plus offensive tackle Cordy Glenn to move from No. 21 into Cincinnati's 12th spot (plus a throw-in sixth-rounder), then gave up No. 12 and two second-rounders for Tampa Bay's No. 7 pick, taking quarterback Josh Allen. The year before, Houston gave up two first-rounders to move from No. 25 to No. 12 for Deshaun Watson, and Kansas City did the same plus a third-rounder to jump from No. 27 to No. 10 for Patrick Mahomes.
It's worth noting Lance went through the pre-draft process thinking Washington was among teams very high on him, and general manager Martin Mayhew spent time with the North Dakota State staff in Fargo.
Coach Ron Rivera knows his team has serious needs and could be willing to part with draft capital as a result (the team was in on the talks for quarterback Matthew Stafford and offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr. before backing out).
At the very least, Washington is a team to watch as the first picks come off the board. If it stays put at No. 19, keep an eye out for TCU safety Trevon Moehrig as a possibility. We're told Washington likes him a lot. He's expected to be the first safety off the board.
Panthers on the move?
Carolina, which owns the No. 8 pick, is angling to trade back, a signature Seahawks move that new general manager Scott Fitterer -- a long-time John Schneider lieutenant in Seattle -- can implement in the NFC South. The Panthers have seven picks now, would like to have more, and believe they can get a premier player -- like one of the top cornerbacks, for example -- just a few spots back.
If they do stand pat and Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell slips past the Bengals at No. 5, Carolina is high on him and could look to secure the left tackle of the future -- or leverage him to move back.
The team also has toyed with the idea of having two high-pedigree quarterbacks on rookie deals, recently acquired Sam Darnold and a new guy. We're told that if Fields is there at No. 8, they'll at least consider that move, as they have him graded highly. But other teams aren't buying that, believing Carolina is all-in on Darnold and is trying to leverage more picks.
Most execs and evaluators would take Trevor Lawrence No. 1 all day, but there is a small group that believes, if you stripped away the Lawrence hype, Wilson might at least make a compelling case as the best quarterback in this class.
"If you value throwing ability and arm angles and 'wow' throws, then you could talk yourself into [Wilson at No. 1]," said an NFC exec, who added, "Lawrence is still more of a total package, though."
Added another exec: "It'd at least be worth a heated discussion in a normal year. I might actually take him if I had the first pick. I'm in the minority. His release, mechanics and the ability to play fast are elite."
Wilson is expected to be picked second overall by the Jets.
Are the Patriots in for a quarterback?
Most people around the league are skeptical that the Patriots will trade up for a quarterback, as it goes against Bill Belichick's history and habits. But there has been some chatter the past couple of days indicating that New England thinks highly of Fields and would try to move up a bit to get him if he falls into the latter part of the top 10.
The Patriots probably wouldn't trade their 2022 first-round pick, but they have 10 picks in this year's draft and could, if they wanted to, put together a package that could get them in the top 10 if that's where they needed to be to make sure they got their guy. Of course, if Detroit and Carolina pass on quarterbacks and Denver takes Lance at No. 9, the Patriots might be positioned to get their guy without moving up.
1:05
David Pollack explains why the Patriots can deal Stephon Gilmore in order to move into the top 10 of the NFL draft.
If they don't take a quarterback, New England likely will take one of the cornerbacks with their first pick, especially with cornerback Stephon Gilmore's situation still unsettled. Gilmore is a sneaky candidate to get traded on draft weekend or soon thereafter, depending on how things shake out with New England's defensive back situation.
Corner chatter: Horn or Surtain?
It seems the top two cornerbacks in this class are South Carolina's Jaycee Horn and Alabama's Patrick Surtain II, in some order. Some of the conversations we've had in recent days indicate that Horn could be the first corner taken, though among folks we've asked to compare the two, the sense is that they like both a great deal.
Surtain is viewed as the better tackler, with probably cleaner and more consistent film overall, but others prefer Horn's in-your-face attitude. Either player will make some team happy, and the Lions, Panthers, Broncos, Cowboys, Giants and Eagles are among the teams in the top 12 that could take a corner and surprise no one.
Caleb Farley might be a top-tier talent, and some teams have him as the best cover corner based on ability. But there's concern over when exactly he can contribute coming off offseason back surgery, the second of his career. He also has a lack of film after opting out last season, finishing his collegiate career playing 23 games for Virginia Tech.
One general manager said Farley's stock is "treading water," and teams are concerned about his flexibility after having multiple procedures. They'd rather deal with a knee injury than a back issue. But it only takes one team to fall in love with him. Farley's skills are obvious, and agent Drew Rosenhaus is predicting Farley will go in the first round.
Rosenhaus has a track record on this sort of thing (he forecasted before the 2019 draft that any team trading for Devin Bush must get to No. 10, and that's exactly what the Steelers did). There's a lot of final-week uncertainty, however, for a player once projected for the top half of the first round.
Waddle keeps rising
There's sizable buzz about Alabama's Jaylen Waddle as a playmaker who could be the second wide receiver taken. "He's the best player in the entire draft," said an NFC personnel executive.
We're hearing Waddle enters the draft believing his chances to go in the top 10 are strong, so any trade up might require receiver-needy teams in the teens to move accordingly. Receiver positioning is always tough to predict because there are so many good ones, and teams know they can score big on Day 2 playmakers. But enough teams see shades of Tyreek Hill that Waddle won't fall far.
There are teams ahead of Philly in the draft order who believe the Eagles are trying to trade up from No. 12 to make sure they get the speedy Waddle. Part of the issue here is that the Eagles, following their trade down from No. 6 to No. 12, are now parked directly behind NFC East rivals Dallas and the Giants in the draft order, and obviously aren't going to be able to trade with those teams. They believe (accurately) that the Giants would be a threat to take Waddle at No. 11 if he fell that far, so if they want him, they have to get up to No. 9 or higher. Detroit at No. 7 and Carolina at No. 8 are two teams that would be interested in trading down and could take the Eagles' call.
Which wide receiver will go first?
As for the overall order of the wide receivers, LSU's Ja'Marr Chase is the clear No. 1. One evaluator called him a faster version of the Saints' Michael Thomas, while another said Chase had "legs like a running back, but moves like a receiver." Bengals coach Zac Taylor said in a news conference Monday that Chase's relationship with quarterback Joe Burrow -- they played and set records together at LSU in 2019 -- is a factor the team considers when deciding which way to go here.
1:10
Michael Irvin breaks down why he believes Ja'Marr Chase is a better wide receiver than DeVonta Smith.
Assuming the Falcons take Florida tight end Kyle Pitts with the No. 4 overall pick, as most people now seem to believe they will, Cincinnati at No. 5 is choosing between Chase and Sewell. If the Bengals don't take Chase, Miami surely will take him at No. 6. If the Bengals do take Chase, Miami likely takes one of the Alabama receivers, and the best guess from sources close to that situation is that the Dolphins go with Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith.
(It is worth noting, however, that Tuesday's trade of offensive lineman Ereck Flowers from Miami to Washington got a lot of people wondering whether Miami was planning to pass on the playmaker and take Sewell at No. 6. We're hearing Miami wants to move Robert Hunt, a second-round pick last year, to guard full-time. The Dolphins are looking to free agency for a stopgap at right tackle, but could draft one if the right player falls to them in the draft, too.)
If Cincy takes Chase and Miami takes Smith, that leaves Waddle, who could be an option for the Lions at No. 7 (the Lions could go a number of different ways and surprise no one), the Panthers at No. 8, the Giants at No. 11 or the Eagles at No. 12 -- Philly's dream scenario.
Is Atlanta locked in?
Speaking of the Falcons, we have been told that team owner Arthur Blank was pushing, early in the process, for the team to draft a quarterback, on the premise that teams don't often get to pick this high in a draft with so many good quarterback prospects. But new coach Arthur Smith and new general manager Terry Fontenot would prefer to try to build a winning team in the short term around Matt Ryan, and Blank ultimately decided he wouldn't overrule the two guys he just hired to make these decisions for him.
So while obviously things could change if San Francisco pulls a surprise at No. 3 or if someone offers the Falcons a major haul to move up to No. 4, Atlanta is expected to stay put and take Pitts, whom some would tell you is the best player in the entire draft. With former first-round wide receiver Calvin Ridley in place, drafting Pitts could pave the way for a Julio Jones trade, though such a deal likely would have to wait until after June 1 for salary-cap reasons.
Sewell the chess piece
If Sewell somehow slips past Cincinnati at No. 5, a potential trade up comes into play.
The expectation, at least right now, is his floor is No. 8. The Giants (No. 11) are a sneaky contender here. We're hearing they've done a ton of legwork on Sewell, including last-minute virtual calls. And quarterback Justin Herbert is publicly lobbying for the Chargers to draft his former Oregon teammate. The Chargers (No. 13) prioritized the interior offensive line in free agency knowing they would come over the top with a tackle somewhere in the draft.
There are some teams that prefer Northwestern's Rashawn Slater to Sewell (and a couple of people we've talked to believe the Chargers are one of those teams), in part because he's viewed as more versatile and able to play multiple positions on the line, and in part because he has apparently dazzled teams in the interview process. Minnesota (No. 14) is one to watch for Slater. But even those teams acknowledge that the upside of Sewell might be hard to pass up if they were presented with a choice between the two.
Tackling the issue
While we're on offensive tackles, they will be in high demand once again despite the lack of undeniable Day 1 starters (which Kansas City showed by trading out of No. 31 to take Orlando Brown). There's good depth at the position, but some teams will be taking on projects. Several scouts say they loosely expect a similar output to last year, when six tackles went in the first round, despite some second-round grades in the bunch.
This formula will ensure Sewell and Slater go high, and it will likely push Virginia Tech's Christian Darrisaw well into the top 20. Darrisaw didn't have a great pre-draft process coming off core muscle surgery, but his tape is good.
There's no consensus on the fourth-best tackle. Names we hear often are Alabama's Alex Leatherwood and Oklahoma State's Teven Jenkins. But draft boards vary on this. North Dakota State's Dillon Radunz is rising and might even slip into the late first or early second round. He has the flexibility to play all spots on the line. Notre Dame's Liam Eichenberg (likely more of a right tackle), Stanford's Walker Little, Texas' Samuel Cosmi and Michigan's Jalen Mayfield are intriguing.
One scouting director called this year a "short-armed class" of tackles. Darrisaw and Radunz were both measured at 34 inches in arm length, but many of the top guys are shorter. Most of the league's best tackles are longer than 34 inches, and last year's high picks, Andrew Thomas and Mekhi Becton, both cleared 35 inches.
How could the running back class shape up?
There's some healthy first-round running back buzz despite the long-term volatility of the position. Enough teams have first-round grades on Alabama's Najee Harris and Clemson's Travis Etienne to make it interesting. If they go high, that's good news for North Carolina's Javonte Williams, a high second-rounder who could get pushed up.
Many mock drafts have pegged Harris to Pittsburgh at No. 24. While we don't know who they will pick, we do know the Steelers consider him a special player, as many teams do, and they will try to find a running back somewhere in the first two days.
Harris considers his window of opportunity to start at No. 16 with Arizona. That's the ceiling -- there or Miami at 18. It's hardly a slam dunk he goes that high, but that's where he starts paying attention. Both of those teams have done extensive work on top running backs. And when asking around on Harris to Pittsburgh, we hear a lot of "if he's there" qualifiers. That's a good sign for Harris.
Etienne at No. 34 would be a dream pick for the Jets, but he might not be there, which could make New York rethink its pick at No. 23. Buffalo (No. 30) likes him but could go pass rush or trade back.
Two teams picking early on Day 2 that have done extensive work on running backs: the Falcons and Giants. Atlanta desperately needs help there. And with Saquon Barkley still recovering from a torn anterior cruciate ligament and a decision on his fifth-year option looming, the Giants could be looking for insurance.
Getting defensive
With all of this talk about quarterbacks and receivers, when will the defensive players start going off the board? It's entirely possible that Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons could be Detroit's pick at No. 7. The Lions believe they need major help at the inside linebacker position and see Parsons as the kind of sideline-to-sideline terror who could anchor the middle of their defense for years to come. Could they trade down and still get him? Probably. But if no trade materializes, the Lions would consider Parsons at 7 along with other options such as the receivers and tackles.
As for pass-rushers, the top of this draft is unusually bereft of those, though teams always seem to reach for one. Miami's Jaelan Phillips is seen by many teams as the most talented one of the bunch, but teams have concerns over what happened with him at UCLA, where he medically retired in 2018. Some teams will have a hard time getting over that, in spite of Phillips' obvious talent and potential.
6:59
Adam Schefter looks at what goes into teams looking to trade up in the NFL draft, especially when there are highly coveted QBs available.
Michigan's Kwity Paye is seen by many as the safest of the pass-rush crop, though he might just be the best of a substandard-looking bunch. If the Giants stay at No. 11 -- and remember, general manager Dave Gettleman has never traded down in any round as GM of the Giants or Panthers -- they'll most likely be looking at cornerback, possibly receiver if one of the top guys falls that far or possibly one of the OTs if one of the top two falls that far. But we're told that Giants coaches and executives, in their draft meetings, have brought up the organization's history with pass-rushers multiple times and know the owners love to lean that way in the first round. Don't be shocked if the first pass-rusher off the board (likely Paye) goes at No. 11 to Big Blue.
Overall, it's not viewed as a high-end defensive draft except for the top couple of cornerbacks. One talent evaluator said any defensive pick in the early rounds "will be more of an overall quality pick or a need pick than a stat pick," meaning teams will prioritize projection over college performance.
Could there be a sixth first-round QB?
We heard buzz around Florida's pro day last month that the Saints liked quarterback Kyle Trask, and that stands true on draft week. They did a lot of homework on him. While the Saints could go wide receiver or cornerback on Day 1, Trask is on the radar. They own the No. 28 pick.
If a sixth quarterback can sneak into Round 1, Tampa Bay and Trask is a fit that multiple NFL people have connected. He's a pure pocket guy who can throw on platform at a high level, which is what Bruce Arians loves. Tampa has all roster needs met and can truly make a luxury pick at No. 32.
Mobility is a concern that plagued him, but teams also know that a high ankle sprain affected his late-season movement outside the pocket and slowed his pro day prep.
Rebel package
Some in league circles are connecting Ole Miss receiver Elijah Moore as a viable option for Tennessee at No. 22. Tennessee, which must replace Corey Davis, would have a formidable Ole Miss core of A.J. Brown and Moore, who can get upfield in a hurry and make plays out of the slot.
"He's my absolute favorite player in the draft," said a veteran AFC scout. "Will instantly make an offense better." Many teams pegged Moore as a second-round prospect to start, but he has worked his way into first-round consideration.
That's a rap
Potential first-round slot receiver Kadarius Toney likes to rap, producing music videos under the name Yung Joka. When speaking to Toney for a story about modern NFL weapons, ESPN asked him whether teams bring that up during virtual meetings.
"Teams ask me about it," Toney said. "They don't really make it an issue -- not like on social media, where they say I don't take football as seriously [as music]. That would never be the case. If that were the case, I wouldn't even play football, because whatever I'm most passionate about, I throw myself into it."
Toney's joystick capabilities on the field make him a viable option for several receiver-needy teams.
Live from the Rams' draft mansion ...
Les Snead recognizes the irony of this setup: The team that trades away first-round picks more than Sean McVay runs play-action is now hosting the draft from a Malibu beach house that looks like a glorified party.
The Rams general manager doesn't have a first-round pick for the fifth straight year, and his team won't have one again until 2024. A flurry of trades netted plenty of fruit: Five years of Jared Goff, two years of Brandin Cooks, Taylor Rapp and two backups in a 2019 trade-back, the game's best corner (Jalen Ramsey) and a top-10 quarterback (Matthew Stafford). There's not a close second place for this much first-round abandonment.
So the Rams are unafraid to challenge draft groupthink, whether on the clock or for crafty marketing.
"That's an element of the brand we want to create -- you definitely want to be innovative, have the courage to take a different path if we determine that gives us an edge," Snead told ESPN.
Whose House?! R̶a̶m̶s̶ Rebel's House!@rebelwilson crashes the Malibu Draft House. 🌴 pic.twitter.com/HYfkeHYAPK
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) April 26, 2021
But the GM stops there. He's quick to acknowledge the Rams certainly don't have it all figured out, and many organizations are successful sticking to traditional methods. The Rams saw a generational talent in Ramsey and the chance to take the offense over the top with Stafford. Snead adds the Rams wouldn't have made these moves without a plan to accumulate Day 2 and compensatory picks and hitting for average in Rounds 2-7.
The Rams have had nine compensatory picks since 2017, fifth highest in the NFL during that span. Eight of those comp picks were third- or fourth-rounders, tied with New England for the most. Rapp, Cooper Kupp, Gerald Everett, John Johnson, Joe Noteboom, Cam Akers and Van Jefferson are among recent Day 2 hits. And they try to keep much of their homegrown talent.
"The paradigm of not worrying about traditional wisdom, sometimes that's an element of [a perception that] we think we have all the answers. That's not the case at all," Snead said. "We do like to challenge what's been done before, not necessarily among all 32, but what we've done before, challenging that, assess the why. Is there a reason to adjust and to think about how we can innovate that? ... A lot of times when you do what we've done, you're making a bet, done some analysis, and you're relatively certain that what we're doing differently has a good chance of working out. There are times there's no case study and you definitely take that step and go through some experience and ask, is it the best way?"
Snead is used to a quiet Thursday night of draft week, and with all the prep work done, he expects things to heat up for Los Angeles around the 40th pick (the Rams pick 57th). That gives McVay plenty of time to accept Kliff Kingsbury's shirts-off challenge.
"I know Sean has been dialed in this winter doing this slightly new diet, so he's probably in shirt-off shape," Snead said with a laugh. "But not sure we'll get to that point.
"We've all joked while being in a stuffy draft room that, 'Why aren't we on a beach somewhere doing this?'"
Ten more team-specific nuggets to whet your draft appetite
• Armed with two late first-round picks after the Orlando Brown trade, the Ravens are expected to be aggressive in pursuit of offensive line help. Obviously Brown needs to be replaced at right tackle, and they have some free-agent options kicking around on that front, but they also don't know for a fact that starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley will be ready to start the season. We're told Stanley is progressing well in his injury recovery but likely will have to start training camp on the PUP list.
• The Packers are among teams to do a lot of research on Minnesota receiver Rashod Bateman. They've spent time with him in the process. Is this finally the year Aaron Rodgers gets a Day 1 pass-catcher?
• Detroit could go any number of ways. The Lions have a depleted roster and need everything. We've been told not to rule them completely out of the quarterback mix at No. 7, depending on how things shake out with the 49ers, but QB is not their primary focus. They like Parsons or Phillips if they go defense (or especially if they trade down and go defense). They could go with Slater as a versatile offensive line piece. And many expect them to take a wide receiver. There was chatter early in the week that the Lions tried to trade up to No. 4 to get Chase, but the Falcons' asking price was too high.
0:47
Field Yates says not having an NFL combine is making it harder for scouts to fully gauge players' potential for the upcoming draft.
• The Cowboys are locked in on defense at No. 10. But they were locked in on defense last year and were shocked that wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, one of the top players on their board, was still there when their pick came around, so they drafted him. Could that situation repeat itself if Pitts or one of the top wideouts is there at No. 10? Of course it could. But assuming that's not the case, the bet here is they take Horn.
• It's fascinating that the Eagles' trade back from No. 6 to No. 12 resulted in three NFC East rivals drafting in consecutive order -- Cowboys at No. 10, Giants at No. 11 and Eagles at No. 12. That's made it even tougher than usual for those teams to get reliable intel about what the teams closest to them in the draft order plan to do.
• If the Bengals do go with Chase at No. 5, they'll be looking for offensive line help with their second-round pick and possibly their third-round and fourth-round picks as well. Some names we hear they like include Notre Dame tackle Liam Eichenberg, Oklahoma center Creed Humphrey, Alabama center Landon Dickerson and Wisconsin-Whitewater guard Quinn Meinerz.
• The Raiders, who have made getting younger on the offensive line a priority this offseason, are thought to be looking at several of the tackle options in the mid-to-late part of the first round. They own the No. 17 pick. They also did extensive work on Lance: They don't need a quarterback but worked as if they did over recent weeks.
• The Steelers need to rebuild their offense and could certainly take an offensive lineman or even a running back in the first round. But it's important to note that their last seven first-round picks have been defensive players. (They didn't have a first-round pick last year. They traded it for Minkah Fitzpatrick, who plays defense.) The last offensive player they took in the first round was guard David DeCastro in 2012. Before that it was Maurkice Pouncey in 2010. Figure defense or offensive line as the most likely directions for Pittsburgh to go in the first. Tulsa linebacker Zaven Collins is one to watch for Pittsburgh if they go that route. His stock is rising. Washington pass-rusher Joe Tryon is on the Steelers' radar, too.
• The team most likely to trade? How about the Seahawks, who have only three picks in this entire draft as of now? They sent two of them to the Jets in the Jamal Adams trade and one to the Raiders in the Gabe Jackson trade. But before Seattle fans get too worried, remember: When draft week in 2019 dawned, the Seahawks had only four draft picks. They kicked things off by trading Frank Clark to the Chiefs, traded down over and over again once the draft started and ended up selecting 11 players. Since 2010, the Seahawks' 105 picks are the second most any team has made, behind only the Vikings. General manager John Schneider with just three picks is like da Vinci staring at a blank chapel ceiling.
• What's worth watching this year is how many trade-down teams will try to collect picks in next year's draft. This year's draft, remember, is viewed as the most difficult one to evaluate in recent memory, given all of the COVID-19-related issues around the 2020 college season and the scouting process. Don't be surprised if a lot of the trades that happen this week involve 2022 picks, which teams may value more highly.
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