Slow-moving storms could occur 14 times more often before the end of the century, causing damage due to prolonged rainfall in small areas
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Researchers say large-scale flooding from slow-moving rainfall, like those that affected Europe recently, could become much more common due to the effects of global heating, according to a study.
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High-resolution computer models indicate that in a worst-case scenario, before the end of the century, slower-moving storms over land could be 14 times more likely to occur, the Guardian reported. The slower the storms, the more rainfall in a certain area and the higher risk of flooding.
“The simulations give the idea that even worse can happen,” said Abdullah Kahraman, of Newcastle University in the U.K., who coordinated the research.
The study, which was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, revealed that slow-moving storms are more common in the summer.
“In the summertime, especially in August, the highest increase occurs over a large part of the European continent,” Kahraman said.
The modelling also showed that impacts from the slow-moving storms extended into the regions in Europe with colder temperatures, which surprised researchers.
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“We found that the whole of Europe, including the U.K. and Scandinavia, experience such really slow extreme rainstorm potential,” said Kahraman.
This latest research is the first to analyze the effect of slow-moving storms causing extreme weather in Europe. Researchers were already aware of the role that higher air temperatures play in facilitating more moisture in the atmosphere.
The storms that were modelled in the study moved at a slower pace than the storms that flooded Germany and the Netherlands during the past week, resulting in more rainfall and more severe flooding.
“This study shows that in addition to the intensification of rainfall with global warming, we can also expect a big increase in slow-moving storms,” said Lizzie Kendon, of the U.K. Met Office. “This is very relevant to the recent flooding seen in Germany and Belgium, which highlights the devastating impacts of slow-moving storms.”
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The study used computer models from the Met Office, that had a 2km resolution, which is the same resolution used to forecast short-term weather. Researchers investigated changes in slow-moving storms if carbon emissions are not reduced, but rather continue to rise.
“This gives us a very useful idea of how the climate can change if people do not really change in terms of emissions or behaviour, so I think this is useful in that sense,” Kahraman said.
The study is among the first to model the European climate to a small resolution. In the future, the researchers hope to examine slow-moving storms in different contexts, where emissions are cut. However, the researchers expect increased incidents of these types of storms to remain the same.
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“Governments across the world have been too slow in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and global warming continues apace,” said Hayley Fowler, a Newcastle professor who worked on the study. “This study suggests that changes to extreme storms will be significant and cause an increase in the frequency of devastating flooding across Europe. This, alongside the current floods in Europe, is the wake-up call we need to produce improved emergency warning and management systems.”
Flooding in western Europe reached new intensity levels and surprised climate scientists who were not expecting records to be broken this soon over such a wide area. Over 180 people died during the flooding.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited the flood-ravaged village of Schuld on Sunday, one of the worst-affected by the flooding. Climate scientists have attributed the extreme weather to global heating, saying that instances of extreme weather will become more frequent and intense, the Guardian reported.
“We have to up the pace in the fight against climate change,” said Merkel during her visit.
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