As a career biostatistician, it is quite amazing to me that otherwise intelligent Americans have such a poor understanding of risk-benefit ratios. Our society at large has to be entrusted to implement judgement on its residents, as long as that judgement is not prejudicial against any class of people.
For example, it currently requires all drivers to have automobile insurance. For the overwhelming majority of drivers, on average they will pay more in premiums during their lifetime than they will receive in benefits. The reason we have insurance is that the potential benefit from an unlikely occurrence of a serious accident outweighs our risk involved in the payment of insurance premiums.
COVID-19 is an easy one to assess. First, the best and only way to reliably beat the pandemic is to vaccinate, with very few exceptions, every eligible person in the country, and for that matter, the world.
If you think, as society must, of the collective good vs. harm of this strategy, there is no logical counter argument to this. It is true that as an individual, you have no guaranty that you will personally benefit. But we can say your personal risk is small compared to your potential benefit: preventing serious disease for you, your contacts and society.
This is not political. These are cold, hard facts from an unprecedented amount of objective information. Vaccine deniers are causing more individuals to contract COVID-19, giving that clever virus more opportunities to mutate into a more deadly form, resistant to vaccines.
More from Jonathan J. Shuster:
Instant runoffs, open primaries would improve Florida’s voting system
Trust the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines
A COVID-19 message to young adults
Medical science is imperfect, but that criticism cannot be leveled against vaccines, especially the three approved by the Food and Drug Administration. These have undergone an unprecedented amount of testing for safety and efficacy.
Further, it is quite likely that you are alive today thanks to vaccinations done in your universally willing ancestors. You owe vaccination to yourself, your family, and to the present and future society.
By teaching cost-benefit analysis to elementary school children, we can make them better informed. It can easily be done in an apolitical way.
“Healthy skepticism” is a wonderful attribute, if it is based on solid evidence. In the age of “fake news,” our children need these analytic tools at a young age, and they can be great educators of their parents and siblings around the dinner table.
Jonathan J. Shuster, PhD, lives in Gainesville and is a professor emeritus at the University of Florida College of Medicine. This piece reflects his own opinions and he has not sought approval of the university.
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This article originally appeared on The Gainesville Sun: Jonathan J. Shuster: Teach children early about risks and benefits
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