- Tropical Storm Nicholas is expected to strengthen in the western Gulf of Mexico.
- Heavy rain and flash flooding are a significant concern in parts of Texas and Louisiana.
- Strong wind gusts and storm surge are also expected near the coast.
Tropical Storm Nicholas in the western Gulf of Mexico is likely to bring a significant threat of flooding rainfall to parts of the Texas and Louisiana coasts as well as the potential for strong wind gusts and storm surge.
Nicholas is centered over 200 miles south-southeast of the border between Texas and Mexico. It's helping to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout a broad area of the western Gulf of Mexico right now. Some bands of rain associated with Nicholas have already spread to near the Texas and Louisiana coasts.
Current Radar, Watches and Warnings
Tropical storm warnings have been issued along the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport. This means tropical-storm-force winds (39+ mph) are expected in these areas beginning as early as Monday or Monday night.
A hurricane watch is also now in effect for a part of the middle Texas coast, from Port Aransas to Sargent. Hurricane conditions could occur in this area by Monday night.
A tropical storm watch is in effect on the Texas coast from north of Port Aransas to High Island. These areas could see tropical-storm-force winds by late Monday night or early Tuesday.
Watches and Warnings
(A watch is issued when tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours. )The National Hurricane Center expects Nicholas to track northward near or just off the coasts of northeast Mexico and Texas through early this week, as depicted by the forecast path in the map below.
Nicholas is forecast to strengthen into a moderate to strong tropical storm as it makes this general trek. Landfall should happen sometime Monday into Tuesday.
A track on the right side of the forecast path could allow Nicholas to stay over water longer and become a Category 1 hurricane. That's why a hurricane watch is now in effect for a part of the middle Texas coastline.
It's important to note that impacts, especially flooding rain, will occur both well before and after any official landfall happens.
Projected Path, Intensity Forecast
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path. )Here's a look at the expected forecast impacts from Nicholas.
Forecast Impacts
Flooding Rainfall
The potential for flooding rainfall will be the most widespread threat from Nicholas, regardless of how much it strengthens.
Bands of locally heavy rain are beginning to wrap ashore into the Texas and Louisiana coasts as a surge of deep moisture arrives. That wet pattern might last for several days through at least the first half of this week.
Heavier rain will also become more concentrated near where the center of Nicholas tracks along the western U.S. Gulf Coast.
Therefore, we expect a significant threat of flash flooding near the Gulf Coast from Texas to southwest Louisiana through the first half of the week ahead.
Nicholas could produce the following rainfall totals along its path through midweek, according to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center.
-8 to 16 inches (locally up to 20 inches) across parts of the middle and upper Texas coast.
-5 to 10 inches across the rest of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana.
The potential for flooding could be worsened in some areas if Nicholas slows down its northward progress for a time, as some forecast models indicate.
At least some bands of heavier rain might also swing inland over southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi – areas still recovering from Hurricane Ida.
Rainfall Forecast
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall and may shift based on the forecast path of the tropical system. Higher amounts may occur where bands of rain stall over a period of a few hours. )Flash flood watches have been issued by the National Weather Service for this threat of heavy rain, from southwest Louisiana to all of coastal Texas. This includes Houston and Corpus Christi in Texas and Lake Charles in Louisiana.
Do not drive through floodwaters of any depth and be sure to stay aware of the latest forecast and warning information if you live in a flood-prone location.
NOAA's Weather Prediction Center said Sunday afternoon that flooding rainfall could "lead to significant damage and life-threatening situations" in some areas.
Flood Alerts
(From the National Weather Service.)Wind
Nicholas could produce tropical-storm-force winds within the warning and watch areas along the Texas Monday into Tuesday.
Stronger wind gusts might cause some tree damage and scattered power outages in spots. The winds could also down some trees, especially where soils become saturated from Nicholas' heavy rain.
Storm Surge
Onshore winds are also likely to lead to dangerous rip currents and at least some coastal flooding along parts of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts.
Storm surge is predicted to be the following heights above normal tide levels if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide, according to the NHC.
-3 to 5 feet from Port O'Connor, Texas, to San Luis Pass, Texas, including Matagorda Bay.
-2 to 4 feet from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, Texas.
-2 to 4 feet from San Luis Pass, Texas, to High Island, Texas, including Galveston Bay.
-2 to 4 feet in Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay.
-1 to 3 feet from High Island, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake.
Check back frequently for the latest on this situation as it develops.
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