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WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I’m your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Today, key takeaways from the only English-language debate that offered Canadians a look at federal party leaders who hope to be prime minister. Also, Quebec's premier gives Erin O'Toole a boost in that province. And election geeks, if you like maps — start your engines.
DRIVING THE DAY
LEYLAH ANNIE FERNANDEZ is headed to the U.S. Open final after winning Thursday night's semi-final, the second Canadian teenager in three years to reach one of the biggest stages in tennis. The Blue Jays swept the Yankees in a crucial four-game series in the Bronx. And ageless wonderboy quarterback TOM BRADY opened yet another NFL season.
Oh, and five federal leaders took the stage at the Canadian Museum of History for the only English-language debate of the 36-day federal campaign.
FOUR TAKEAWAYS — POLITICO's crack team of journalists in Ottawa and Washington crammed a live chat with context, analysis, a little bit of snark and the occasional graph. Missed the debate? Watch a replay here and follow along with our team.
POLITICO's ANDY BLATCHFORD and ZI-ANN LUM identified four takeaways:
→ (Just about) everyone wants to scrap the format: The Leaders' Debates Commission organized the set of French and English debates in 2019. A new motley crew of speakers shared the stage this year, making it hard to focus on leaders with additional personalities competing for attention.
→ Annamie Paul stood her ground: The debate gave most Canadians their first impressions of the rookie Green leader, who was poised and firm as she challenged the status quo in Ottawa’s bubble.
→ You shouldn’t throw tomatoes at Beijing: Trudeau offered some details behind his careful approach to the biggest — and most delicate — foreign policy issue faced by his government: the fate of the “two Michaels.”
→ Whither debate of climate plans: The format of the debate did not allow substantive discussion beyond party talking points.
Related reading from POLITICO: Trudeau’s last chance.
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THE FORMAT — SHACHI KURL's turn as moderator ruptured the typically genteel — at least on the surface — relationship between Canada's most prominent pollsters. The complaints: She was too quick to cut off candidates and insert herself into the conversation.
Kurl is president of the Angus Reid Institute.
— FRANK GRAVES, president of EKOS: “Whatever the ideological or competence issues of Sacchi [sic] Kurl, I want an immediate inquiry into what process selected her to moderate such a crucial debate at this point in our political history. I smell a giant rat.”
— BRUCE ANDERSON, chair of Abacus Data: "How on earth did we decide that the Angus Reid Institute was going to act on our behalf tonight?"
— ANGUS REID, the namesake of Kurl's firm, clapped back: "I’ve been conducting polls in Canada for almost 50 years. The vitriol coming out of Ottawa firms such as Abacus and Ekos is unprecedented. Unlike them my organization doesn’t rely on the feds for our livelihood. The Angus Reid Institute has no connection with any political party."
Veteran politicos also had tough words for the federal debate commission's execution:
— GERRY BUTTS, a former top adviser to JUSTIN TRUDEAU: "I have never seen a worse format or moderation. It seemed like a giant mess to me, and a huge disservice to voters."
— ELLY ALBOIM, former adviser to PAUL MARTIN: "Remember that the moderator has rehearsed, the questions are written and approved by the network consortium. What is happening is not an accident. Again, they somehow think this is a journalistic exercise in accountability, not a voter information process."
— RYAN HEATH, the editor of POLITICO's Global Translations newsletter, moderated the first presidential debate of the 2019 EU election. He offered a counterpoint at the tail end of our live chat:
"I’m going to guess your debate critics are members of the political elite of Canada. Most voters in all countries want to see tension, even (metaphorically) blood — debates are the closest politics gets to Olympics or boxing.
"It’s a visual medium that shows candidates in harsh 360-degree lights. The body language, the pauses, the flashes of temper all reveal character. It’s mostly only politicos who are neck deep into the policy details."
Indeed, Kurl racked up ardent defenders:
— JEN GERSON, editor of The Line: "Shachi Kurl is the only moderator I want to see running a Canadian debate ever again."
— JESSE BROWN, editor of Canadaland: "Digging Shachi Kurl."
— ARMINE YALNIZYAN, economist: So far Shachi Kurl is killing the leaders debate in #Elxn44
— QUITO MAGGI, CEO of Mainstreet Research: "Watching this debate reminds me why so few Canadians have decided to participate in our #Elxn44 democratic process, I’d probably vote for Shachi Kurl if she was on the ballot.
10 DAYS TO E-DAY — But the country won't have the chance to take a debate mulligan.
Here are a few thoughts from debate watchers:
SUSAN DELACOURT: Why did Justin Trudeau call this election?
JUSTIN LING: The NDP leader was too busy roasting the incumbent to sell himself as a PM-in-waiting.
STEPHEN MAHER: Could it be Prime Minister Erin O'Toole?
GINGER GOSNELL-MYERS: Until we have some organization so we can leave these debates understanding who stands where, unfortunately I am more confused than I am hopeful.
ELAMIN ABDELMAHMOUD: “I’m willing to take you out for a pizza if you made it past the first hour because it was hard to watch.”
ANDREW COYNE: Reform of the debates may be something an all-party committee, if it did its work far enough from election day, could handle. It may be better left to a royal commission. It may even be the sort of thing we need to put out to a citizens assembly. But we need to fix this.
ERICA IFILL: So without Annamie Paul we have no mention of Black people in this country?
BRIAN LILLEY:Trudeau didn’t win, he sounded desperate. O’Toole didn’t lose, he sounded competent. Singh will keep nipping away at Trudeau’s support — meaning look for a change in the polls.
FATIMA SYED: In two days it will be the 20-year anniversary of 9/11. That's 20 years of hate, Islamophobia, racism, systemic discrimination and complicated foreign policy decisions. Something we could've talked about in tonight's leaders debate but didn't.
JOHN IBBITSON: This election will be decided, one way or another, in its final week, on the campaign trail – not based on anything that happened Thursday night.
THE PREMIER HAS SPOKEN — Quebec premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT dropped a stink bomb on Thursday morning when he called a Liberal government — and an empowered NDP or Green Party — "dangerous" for Quebec.
Legault hopes for a minority government helmed by Tory leader O'Toole. If that endorsement does move the dial to O'Toole's benefit, let's play out potential consequences for the ridings that might be in play:
→ O'TOOLE ROMPS: Conservatives manage to flip key ridings in British Columbia's Lower Mainland, the coveted 905 region and Atlantic Canada. The premier's boost delivers a handful of tight seats in Quebec that produce an O'Toole minority government.
→ TRUDEAU TRIUMPHS: Tories fail to translate a national polling lead into regional gains. Liberals remain in government, and Legault's support only modestly expands the Tories' Quebec caucus.
→ BLANCHET RISES: The "Legault effect" increases Conservative vote-share in Quebec, but inadvertently allows the Bloc Québécois to sneak through the middle in close three-way races — ridings like Hochelaga, Châteauguay-Lacolle and Compton-Stanstead — delivering the balance of power in a fragile minority government to a resurgent Bloc.
→ SINGH SOARS: Legault unleashes tremendous volatility that produces a totally unforeseen NDP surge in all the same places JACK LAYTON charmed in 2011. JAGMEET SINGH ends up with the second-largest caucus in the party's history. (Hey, it could happen.)
YOUR WEEKEND OBSESSION — Political geeks, rejoice. The STEPHEN TAYLOR Data Project, a labor of love for the Tory politico of the same name, is an epic achievement in electoral data visualization.
Interactive maps offer readers riding-level results for every election since 2000 — plus relevant census data for every district. Zoom in, though, and the real magic reveals itself: poll-by-poll results for every corner of the country. What are you waiting for? Click!
COVID WATCH — As a Delta-driven fourth wave of Covid hits the four biggest provinces and school-aged kids return to their classrooms, the pandemic could become a key preoccupation for voters. Every day, we’re updating the most recent provincial data on Covid patients in critical care in Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec. The change since the last provincial update is in parentheses.
Ontario: 185 (-9)
Alberta: 154 (+7)
British Columbia: 130 (+1)
Quebec: 70 (-1)
— A parable: As Alberta hospitals reckon with capacity pressures, Sen. PAULA SIMONS reflects on "the perplexities of human psychology and human motivation."
Simons tweeted the story of her mother, a stubborn smoker who refused to quit even when her daughter introduced a child into the world. What did the trick? "When smoking became maximally inconvenient." Lessons, perhaps, for the vaccine-hesitant.
THE CHESSBOARD
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is back — again — in battleground Hamilton. (We were there in the campaign's earliest days.) He'll start with a 10:30 ET announcement, but the Liberal leader is likely to pick up his late-campaign frenetic pace. Itineraries are only a starting point.
Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole is bee-lining to the 905, where he'll make stops in Mississauga and Whitby. O'Toole's first stop is a 12:30 announcement at a legion hall in Mississauga-Lakeshore, a riding held by Liberal SVEN SPENGEMANN that could be the likeliest to turn blue on election day — though that's no sure thing.
O'Toole crosses the traffic-snarled Greater Toronto Area for an evening event at a barn in Liberal RYAN TURNBULL's riding, near the leader's Durham stomping grounds.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is headed back to British Columbia, where he'll vote for himself in Burnaby-South advanced polls. But he's up bright and early for an 8 ET announcement outside NDP HQ — the JACK LAYTON Building — in downtown Ottawa.
Once he lands in B.C., Singh will convene a 4:30 PT Instagram Live with JANETTE EWEN. An hour later, the NDP leader will hold a rally with supporters.
THE HERLE BURLY
We're been collaborating with The Herle Burly on 2021 campaign coverage. DAVID HERLE, SCOTT REID and JENNI BYRNE tackle a key question each day. Find out more about them here.
After last night’s debate we asked: How did the leaders meet your expectations? Are they better off today than yesterday?
REID: The format was atrocious — terribly structured and severely over-moderated. It worked most powerfully to the disadvantage of Trudeau as the incumbent and you could see him becoming frustrated a number of times over the course of the evening. O'Toole emerged unscathed, never really forced into a corner or gang-tackled. That works to his benefit. But something this unwatchable might not have been watched. That is probably Trudeau's hope.
HERLE: I need to start my assessment of the debate by quoting George W Bush: "That was some weird s--t." The leaders were overshadowed by a showcase of journalists determined to have the last word. Worst debate format I’ve ever seen. Trudeau looked agitated and missing his famous EQ much of the night. I didn’t see much from Singh to change the way people think about him. O’Toole looked steady and reassuring. We’ll know what voters think by Sunday.
BYRNE: I didn’t think the format could be worse than the French debate last night, but alas here we are. Shachi Kurl set the tone right off the bat and went downhill from there with subsequent questioning.
The format was terrible for the incumbent — Trudeau seemed rattled most of the night and was downright testy for most of the debate. O’Toole performed well, Singh was scattered, Blanchet had not a care in the world and Annamie Paul was weak on policy and strong on anecdotes. All in all, the worst debate I’ve seen. I assume most Canadians tuned out early on.
Listen for more debate analysis on the Herle Burly panel's campaign pod. Nick Taylor-Vaisey kicks things off each morning with lively banter and keen insight. Subscribe to Curse of Politics here.
ABACUS INSIGHT
Each day throughout the campaign, DAVID COLETTO from Abacus Data is sharing a data point on the 2021 federal election with Playbook readers.
Today: Handicapping the final week of the campaign
Because we ask a lot of people a lot of questions in our weekly survey, we can try to estimate the floors and ceilings of the six major parties just over a week out from Election Day. This exercise helps us understand the range of outcomes that could happen if something big occurs in these final few days.
I use a combination of responses from first choice and second choice responses along with a follow up question about whether people are firm in their first choice or could change. Note, this analysis was done prior to the debates this week and so they could already be having such an effect.
Our most recent vote intention estimate is Conservative 32 percent, Liberal 32 percent and NDP 21 percent.
When I run the numbers, I get the following floors and ceilings:
— The Liberals: Their floor is 22 percent, while their most optimistic and realistic ceiling is 39 percent.
— The Conservatives: Their floor is higher than the Liberals at 23 percent, but their ceiling is lower at 37 percent.
— The NDP: Their floor is 12 percent, and their ceiling is 29 percent.
The upshot is that the Liberals could still pull out a majority. The Conservatives would be hard-pressed to get anywhere near 40 percent of the vote, and about half of the NDP could be squeezed away.
PROZONE
— Wanted: Details for O’Toole’s low-carbon savings account pitch.
— TTIP rises from the grave to fight China.
— House Democrats reveal climate spending for $3.5T budget plan.
— Biden unveils steps to advance sustainable aviation fuels.
— Facebook lures top Democrat to its D.C. lobbying ranks.
MEDIA ROOM
— Check out this episode of the POLITICO energy podcast. ZI-ANN LUM chats with host ANNIE SNIDER about how climate is at the forefront of Canadians’ minds this year — and the problem with the oil and gas sector jobs argument some politicians like to use. Listen and subscribe for free at politico.com/energy-podcast.
— MIKE MCDONALD, a veteran campaigner who played major roles in B.C.'s CHRISTY CLARK era, empties his notebook on the complex psychology of campaigns.
— The Herle Burly podcast convened its NDP election panel to talk about the campaign's homestretch: CHRIS BALL from Earnscliffe, JORDAN LEICHNITZ from the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung office in Washington, and SALLY HOUSSER, most recently chief of staff to Saskatchewan NDP leader RYAN MEILI.
PLAYBOOKERS
Movers and shakers: HealthcareCAN, the "national voice of action for health organizations and hospitals," met on Aug. 25 with KERRY ROBINSON, whose LinkedIn profile lists her as executive director of intergovernmental, Indigenous and stakeholder policy at PHAC. … ANTONY MCMANUS of Centre-Arch Inc. is now repping shipbuilding powerhouse Chantier Davie on the Hill.
Birthdays: HBD to Sen. PAUL MASSICOTTE (70), Sen. DANIEL CHRISTMAS (65), Liberal incumbent DARREN FISHER (56) and Conservative incumbent BEN LOBB (45).
Spotted: JODY WILSON-RAYBOULD, mentioned repeatedly during last night’s debate … The Canadian military spending C$303,000 for local internet services at its base of operations in Kuwait. … HANNEN AL-HASSOUN, writing for CTV … EMMA MCINTOSH, on her last day at National Observer.
Farewells: The beloved RAINBOW BISTRO, a ByWard Market mainstay for nearly four decades, will shutter unless a new buyer emerges.
ASK US ANYTHING
What is happening? Questions about the campaign? Send them our way.
TRIVIA
Thursday’s answer: When asked about expectations at a 2015 federal leaders’ debate, KORY TENEYCKE observed of TRUDEAU: “If he comes on stage with his pants on, he will probably exceed expectations.”
Props to HENRY FORD, ALAN KAN, LEIGH LAMPERT, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, ART WHITAKER and FRANK APPLEYARD.
Friday’s question: Name the architect of the Canadian Museum of History, the riding in which it sits, and the MP who's running for re-election there.
Send your answers to [email protected]
Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Alejandra Waase to find out how: [email protected]
Playbook couldn’t happen without Luiza Ch. Savage, editor Sue Allan, Zi-Ann Lum and Andy Blatchford.
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