FIRST ALERT: Sticking snow remains on track to occur in the Stateline this week - WIFR

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ROCKFORD, Ill. (WIFR) - We may be nearly a month into Spring, but a bona fide taste of Winter is on the way over the course of the next few days. Sunday marked the Stateline’s third straight day with temperatures in the 60s, but it’ll be several days until the mercury comes anywhere close to reaching the 60° mark. A strong cold front is on the move from the northwest, and is the first of two weather systems set to impact the Stateline in the upcoming workweek’s opening stages. A well-organized line of showers is accompanying that front and heading our way.

There's rain in Wisconsin and Minnesota heading our way.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

These showers aren’t likely to have any impact on our area overnight. Rather, the opening half of Monday could potentially be on the wet side. Current model projections send light rain into our area sometime in the 7:00 to 10:00am window Monday.

A few showers are possible Monday morning as a strong cold front moves through.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Rain should push south of the area rather quickly in the afternoon, and a sizeable period of dry conditions can be expected well into the evening and perhaps overnight.

Most of the afternoon and evening hours appear to be dry.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

The second system, and the one we’ve been watching for several days now, is still more than a thousand miles away, but is now coming into view. A large shield of rain and snow showers is appearing on the radar Sunday evening across the northern Rockies and into Canada.

The second storm system to impact our area is showing up across the northern Rockies.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Precipitation is likely to arrive in our neck of the woods early in the day Tuesday, though models continue to differ somewhat in the exact timing. Regardless, most of us can expect precipitation to be falling by mid to late morning, quite likely in the form of snow, though it’s possible a mix with rain could occur.

Snow is likely to begin in the early to mid-morning hours Tuesday. The heaviest snow looks to focus to our south.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Several hours of precipitation are to follow during the afternoon hours Tuesday. Temperature profiles in our atmosphere appear to support snow being the primary mode of precipitation throughout, though a mix with rain simply cannot be entirely discounted at any time or in any place.

Snow should be moving out early Tuesday evening, but may mix with a bit of rain as well.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Finally, by Tuesday evening, the storm should be exiting the region. Now to the million dollar question. How big of a storm will this be, and how much snow are we looking at? Answer: Not a big deal, and not a lot.

This upcoming winter storm system is not to cause any significant problems here.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

There are three principal reasons why we think this storm will be more of a nuisance than anything else. First and foremost, there’s been a rather noticeable shift southward in the track of this storm system in the most recent computer model runs, thus focusing the heaviest snow well to our south, mainly south of Interstate 80. What’s more, strong April sun has really had an impact on pavement temperatures of late. With current pavement readings running in the 70s to perhaps even 80s these days, it’s really hard to have any meaningful accumulation on such surfaces. Bridges and overpasses may turn slushy should it snow heavily enough, but even that’s not a done deal. Lastly, our soil has been warming considerably as well the past several weeks. With ground temperatures now in the upper 40s to lower 50s, any snow that accumulates on the grass will melt from the ground up.

The combination of a southward-shifting track of the storm, very warm pavement, and warm soil will limit the impact of the storm system here.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

As far as accumulations go, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which our area receives any more than an inch of snowfall during this event. There may be one or two spots along and south of the I-88 corridor to pick up ever so slightly more. Similarly, along and north of US-20, it’s possible that many spots may see little if any accumulation. We’ll continue to monitor the trends in the track of the storm, as any shift could move accumulations farther north or south. Any snow we do see will only be around for a matter of a few hours. The biggest impact locally will come from reduced visibility in some of the heavier squalls.

Presently, any accumulation looks to be less than an inch across the entire area. There may be some spots, especially north, that don't pick up any snow at all.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

What follows behind Tuesday’s system is some remarkably cold air by April standards. Temperatures are to head well below freezing Tuesday night, quite possibly resulting in a hard freeze. Wednesday night could very well see the same occur, so if any planting has been done over the past few weeks, you’ll need to be sure to cover up those plants and bring in those that you can.

A hard freeze looks quite likely Tuesday night and quite possibly again Wednesday night.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Slow warming commences on Thursday, with 60s due back in Friday. Looking longer range, it appears as though we may flirt with 70° by as early as next Monday, and a run toward 80° may not be all that far behind.

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FIRST ALERT: Sticking snow remains on track to occur in the Stateline this week - WIFR
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